What chance for regime change?(JPost Jun30)
Several articles and much speculation has occurred since the Iranian regime was completely humiliated by Israel and the US; most centered around the possibility of regime change in Iran. Most, including the one referred to, are pessimistic about the possibility of the collapse of the regime. However all authoritarian regimes look stable until they’re not.
We now know that Trump is going to insist on very stringent conditions for permitting the ayatollahs to continue to rule. He is certainly going to insist on proper inspections to ensure that Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. However he may permit Iran to continue to pretend that any nuclear activity will be for the purpose of developing a nuclear power plant. This is ridiculous; Iran with copious supplies of oil and natural gas needs a nuclear power plant like a moose needs a hat rack. The regime will continue to cheat and lie and attempt to get the bomb.
All of which comes back to the absolute necessity for ousting the fanatic Islamic regime by fair means or foul. Neither Israel nor the US is going to invade Iran, and at present there is no well organized opposition to the current regime, nor does it seem likely that any section of the military or security services will stage a coup. As long as the army and security apparatus are willing to suppress any civilian arising by brute force, which they have done in the past, the chances of a successful rebellion look very slim. However the Iranian people do not support the regime, nor are they intrinsically badly disposed towards Israel.
As long as the ayatollahs remain in power our victory over Iran is not complete. If we do not want to periodically return to our safe rooms, or even worse mount a military offensive to take out new threats, we should try to instigate a change of regime. Short of actually invading Iran we must weaken the regime’s control over the populace. Just as we degraded their military by assassinating key leaders and atomic scientists, we can use the same tactics on their internal security apparatus. Simultaneously we must support those opposition groups in exile both financially and politically. Obviously, the Mossad will continue to monitor any nuclear developments, but as this is less urgent at the moment, more attention can be paid to the regimes internal security operatives; efforts can be made to infiltrate and subvert these organizations. This must become a priority for Israel.
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