The discussion of the exemption law as it stands should be discontinued. Exemption from serving in the military in a country under siege should be limited to a few exceptional cases. Israel with a population of 10 million surrounded by 100 times as many enemies cannot afford to exempt any able bodied citizens from serving in its defense. 10% of the population is Arab, who currently are not obligated to serve, but may volunteer and some do. 10% of the Jewish population is Haredi, and currently only a few show up when drafted, though this proportion is slowly increasing. However the Haredi form a growing proportion of the Jewish population; the number of Haredi children entering kindergarten this year is, for the first time, slightly larger than those in entering other streams; it is no longer feasible to keep kicking the can down the road, hoping that some miracle will eventually solve the problem. The problem is now, and it doesn’t require rocket science to know that it will get worse.
The solution is obvious to anyone with a functioning brain. If you want to change behavior you must apply appropriate incentives both positive and negative. In this day and age the most powerful incentives are money and education.
Israel still has a significant socialistic economy though fortunately much less so than in former years. The government, for better or worse, still offers significant support to all citizens, but particularly to low income citizens in the form of child allowances, subsidies for pre-school day care, assistance for first time housing purchases, and many other goodies as well as support for the education systems. This gives the government potential financial leverage on a wide scale. This leverage can and should be used to achieve socially desirable outcomes. It is obvious that it is socially desirable that all citizens of Israel regardless of race, religion or gender participate to the best of their abilities in the support of the state, either in the armed forces or in some other capacity. This develops a cohesive society. To achieve this result it is technically simple to make the benefits that society disburses proportional to the sacrifices individuals have made in support of the state. For example if the armed forces expect men to serve for two years and women for one year, then a family that has in total served for fewer years, say two years in total will have their benefits reduced proportionally; their allowances will be two thirds of the standard.
For various reasons there are multiple public education systems in Israel. There is a non-religious one, open to everyone; there is a national religious branch for Jews and also a Haredi branch. There is an Arab system for Muslims and of course a number of different private schools. Government grants to the various systems are determined by political bargaining, but should, preferably be purely based on the number of students enrolled in each system. However, whatever the system, it should be compulsory that all classes of 16 or 17 year-olds should end the school year with a compulsory one week course covering the options available in the IDF as well as in other forms of national service. In the case of Jewish students, especially Haredi students, the course must also cover the halachic reasons for army service. These courses will be run by special teachers from the IDF. Schools which fail to fully cooperate will lose all government funding. As torah study is not one of the halachic reasons for exemption from military service, this requirement will likely be strongly resisted by the Haredi establishment. The government should not yield on this point.
Introducing such radical changes will require determination and political courage. If this results in the departure of the ultra-orthodox parties from the coalition, so be it. If hundreds of heroes have already sacrificed their lives or health fighting for their country, the least that Netanyahu can do is risk the loss of his coalition majority. He has proven his courage in the past on the battlefield; let him display equal courage in the political arena.
The likely result of the introduction of these reforms would be a rapidly increasing participation in the IDF as well as in other forms of service to society. It will also save money as those who stubbornly refuse to participate will receive fewer benefits. The money saved could be used to increase benefits to those who have served in combat units in the IDF.