It is a given that as long as the current extremist Islamic regime remains in power in Iran there will be no peace in the Middle East and Israel will remain in danger; the Ayatollahs will not and cannot change. The regime is loathed by the vast majority of the Iranian people, but will not fall as long as the regime has all the guns and is willing to use them.
Crown prince Pahlavi could offer an interim solution; even though there is no way that the people of Iran would consent to a monarchy. However if Pahlavi makes it absolutely clear that if he is selected by the Iranians it will merely be for a transitional period until a new democratic constitution can be worked out. Under these conditions it will make sense to support such a movement both financially and politically. The existing regime must be shunned in every possible way.
At some point there is a possibility that some members of the Iranian armed forces, particularly the Revolutionary Guard, will decide to abandon the sinking ship of the present regime. The whole Western world must encourage this action. Obviously Israel has an existential interest in this. Any military action that we may be forced to take should be very obviously directed at the regime’s leadership and their enforcement mechanisms. The US and European countries must be encouraged to apply stringent financial sanctions against the regime even if this is thought be harmful in the short term to the Iranian people.
A change of this nature will not be easy to manage, but there is no other feasible alternative. Kicking the can down the road and hoping for miracles is not a viable policy. One cannot make satisfactory deals with ideological bullies. Chamberlin tried that with Hitler in 1938; it didn’t turn out too well.
stephenscohen.com 